Day 1 Tips - Aintree Grand National Festival
Cheltenham's in the bin, spring ground is in. Time to chase the value at Aintree.
With Cheltenham now firmly in the rear-view mirror, punters will be licking their lips at the sight of another major jumps festival.
Behold: Liverpool, Aintree Racecourse, and the Grand National await.
There are often a number of narratives that people focus on when analysing this Festival. “Skipped Cheltenham for this” is one that tends to be top of mind for most decent punters, for example. But sometimes, these narratives can be overplayed, giving us a chance to pick up value where a horse’s chances may have been overlooked.
So, Day 1.
The 1.45pm Grade 1 Manifesto Chase looks like an open contest, and it’s tough to find a strong angle. Impaire Et Passe still has to prove he’s up to the top level of chasing. Jango Baie will need to buck a poor record for Arkle winners in this race, and Croke Park hasn’t exactly set the world alight this season. So, we’ll happily sit this one out and just watch.
At 2.20pm, we’ve got the 4yo Grade 1 Hurdle, which in previous years has often gone to a beaten horse from the Triumph Hurdle. This time, though, all the Triumph contenders coming in were well beaten, and the field looks a little sub-par. Puturhandstogether was mighty impressive winning the Fred Winter, cruising into the straight and powering away to win by 6 lengths. Wendrock was always behind that day and looked green in the finish, but you might expect improvement today. That said, Gordon Elliott is not in the hottest form right now - just 1 win from 33 runners over the last 14 days.
Then it’s the Aintree Bowl at 2.55pm, and the one word I’m focusing on here is conditions. I might sound like a broken record tipping up Ahoy Senor, having done so (unsuccessfully) a few times over the past couple of years. However, today could be his day. If you’ve followed the horse, you’ll know he thrives at Aintree on good, spring ground - exactly what he gets today. Many others in this race would much prefer softer going. His record at this meeting is 1122, and Lucinda Russell is 6 wins from 27 runners (22%) in the last 14 days. And as we all know, she can prep one for this track (hello, Corach Rambler).
3.30pm is the headline act: a rematch between Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth, over Lossiemouth’s preferred 2m4f trip. Constitution Hill also has to bounce back from that painful fall at Cheltenham, when trying to cement his place among the greats. The vibes that day was that he was going into the race in the form of his life and, given he fell early in the race, he would’ve saved plenty of energy. He’s the easily the best hurdler of his generation, so redemption awaits… Come on, Conny - today’s your day, lad.
Selections:
2.55pm Aintree - Ahoy Senor EW at 6/1
3.30pm Aintree - Constitution Hill at Evs
Good Luck Today.